THE JASMINE REVOLUTION IN SE ASIA: FACEBOOKED, TWITTERED AND RECAPPED

By Aid Nethelands



Former deputy Prime Minister and opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim however had a different take remarking that the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt should be a warning signal to other autocracies “whether in the Middle East, Pakistan or Southeast Asia”. Anwar continued noting that the demise of regimes where corruption and nepotism flourished, should remind Malaysians that governments built on the suppression of citizens are always temporary.



With the war in Libya reaching its conclusion, it now looks as if Colonel Gaddafi will be the next authoritarian leader in North Africa to fall as a result the remarkable events dubbed the Arab Spring or Jasmine Revolutions. As I noted back in March many both within Asia and beyond have asked whether such ‘blossoming’ of dissent and revolt could occur in the authoritarian and semi-authoritarian regimes of Northeast, Southeast and Central Asia. T



his week the Center for Asian Democracy at the University of Louisville will host a workshop that will explore precisely that question. Entitled “The Jasmine Revolution and the ‘Bamboo’ Firewall: The impact of the Internet and new social media on political change in East Asia.”, the workshop will host 13 scholars from prestigious academic institutions and non-profit organizations around the country to participate and explore the potential impact of technology on democracy in Asia. Next week I hope to share some of the workshop’s findings with you, but for this week I am reposting the original blog entry from March… (with a few very minor amendments).



Over the past few months the international community has witnessed unprecedented political opposition and revolutions in the Middle East. Already this so called ‘Jasmine Revolution’ or ‘Arab Spring’ has overturned two of the countries long-standing political regimes, the Ben-Ali regime in Tunisia and more surprisingly the 30 year rule of strongman Hosni Mubarak in Egypt.



In Libya it resulted in the descent to near Civil War between Muammar Qaddafi and pro-democracy rebels while its demonstration effects have incited and continue to incite protest in countries from Bahrain to Oman, and from Jordan to Morocco and Syria. Much of this caught everyone by surprise, be they academics, diplomats, journalists or policy advisors. Nevertheless this outburst of popular discontent reflects a number of long-term trends, most specifically a demographic explosion in the 1970s and 1980s means that an estimated 65 per cent of the region’s population is under 30. While significant sums of money have been poured into education, both secondary and tertiary, youth unemployment is a major socio-economic problem with an estimated one in four unemployed. Such high levels of unemployment combined with pervasive levels of corruption, authoritarian political systems with extensive security surveillance and harassment, and the huge growth in the number of users of social network sites (Egypt has for example over 5 millon Facebook users of whom 58% are under 25) provided a potent combination the repercussions of which are still playing out as we speak.



This begs the question as to whether such a popular uprising could happen in that other bastion of authoritarian and quasi-democratic regimes, Southeast Asia. Could the demonstration effects spread to countries as diverse as Cambodia, Malaysia, and Vietnam, among others? Leaders in these countries are clearly worried. Inn February the Malaysian Prime Minister Najib issued a stark warning saying “Don’t think what is happening in Tunisia and Egypt will also happen in Malaysia.. We will not allow it to happen here”. Former deputy Prime Minister and opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim however had a different take remarking that the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt should be a warning signal to other autocracies “whether in the Middle East, Pakistan or Southeast Asia”. Anwar continued noting that the demise of regimes where corruption and nepotism flourished, should remind Malaysians that governments built on the suppression of citizens are always temporary.



In Cambodia, strongman Hun Sen, who has dominated national politics since 1989 and been Prime Minister since 1998, was even starker in his warnings stating on January 20th, in response to comments on a Radio Free Asia report that a Tunisian-like protest could occur in Cambodia. Hun Sen lashed out stating “I have to send a message to people who want to inspire a riot (like) in Tunisia … I will close the door and beat the dog,” Again in contrast the embattled long-standing anti-corruption opposition figure Sam Rainsy echoed Anwar’s views stated on February 2nd, the day pro-Mubarak forces attacked anti-Mubarak supporters in Tahir square, that “I see that it is not long … that there would be such a situation in Cambodia that is the same as Egypt and Tunisia, where people have ousted leaders from power.”

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